Posts Tagged ‘ Miscellaneous Statistics ’

Divisibility in statistics: Where is it needed?

July 8, 2018
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The basics of Bayesian inference is p(parameters|data) proportional to p(parameters)*p(data|parameters). And, for predictions, p(predictions|data) = integral_parameters p(predictions|parameters,data)*p(parameters|data). In these expressions (and the corresponding simpler versions for maximum likelihood), “parameters” and “data” are unitary objects. Yes, it can be helpful to think of the parameter objects as being a list or vector of individual parameters; and […] The post Divisibility in statistics: Where is it needed? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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On this 4th of July, let’s declare independence from “95%”

July 5, 2018
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Plan your experiment, gather your data, do your inference for all effects and interactions of interest. When all is said and done, accept some level of uncertainty in your conclusions: you might not be 97.5% sure that the treatment effect is positive, but that’s fine. For one thing, decisions need to be made. You were […] The post On this 4th of July, let’s declare independence from “95%” appeared first…

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Flaws in stupid horrible algorithm revealed because it made numerical predictions

July 3, 2018
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Kaiser Fung points to this news article by David Jackson and Gary Marx: The Illinois Department of Children and Family Services is ending a high-profile program that used computer data mining to identify children at risk for serious injury or death after the agency’s top official called the technology unreliable. . . . Two Florida […] The post Flaws in stupid horrible algorithm revealed because it made numerical predictions appeared…

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Problems with surrogate markers

June 30, 2018
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Paul Alper points us to this article in Health News Review—I can’t figure out who wrote it—warning of problems with the use of surrogate outcomes for policy evaluation: “New drug improves bone density by 40%.” At first glance, this sounds like great news. But there’s a problem: We have no idea if this means the […] The post Problems with surrogate markers appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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In my role as professional singer and ham

June 28, 2018
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Pryor unhooks the deer’s skull from the wall above his still-curled-up companion. Examines it. Not a good specimen –the back half of the lower jaw’s missing, a gap that, with the open cranial cavity, makes room enough for Pryor’s head. He puts it on. – Will Eaves, Murmur So as we roll into the last […] The post In my role as professional singer and ham appeared first on Statistical…

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We’re gonna have a discussion of Deborah Mayo’s new book!

June 26, 2018
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That’s Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars. She’ll send us some pages that we can post here, we’ll get some people to share their thoughts, and there will be lots of opportunity for comments...

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What is the role of statistics in a machine-learning world?

June 26, 2018
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I just happened to come across this quote from Dan Simpson: When the signal-to-noise ratio is high, modern machine learning methods trounce classical statistical methods when it comes to prediction. The role of statistics in this case is really to boos...

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Regression to the mean continues to confuse people and lead to errors in published research

June 24, 2018
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David Allison sends along this paper by Tanya Halliday, Diana Thomas, Cynthia Siu, and himself, “Failing to account for regression to the mean results in unjustified conclusions.” It’s a letter to the editor in the Journal of Women & Aging, responding to the article, “Striving for a healthy weight in an older lesbian population,” by […] The post Regression to the mean continues to confuse people and lead to errors…

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Ways of knowing in computer science and statistics

June 22, 2018
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Brad Groff writes: Thought you might find this post by Ferenc Huszar interesting. Commentary on how we create knowledge in machine learning research and how we resolve benchmark results with (belated) theory. Key passage: You can think of “making a a deep learning method work on a dataset” as a statistical test. I would argue […] The post Ways of knowing in computer science and statistics appeared first on Statistical…

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Data science teaching position in London

June 19, 2018
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Seth Flaxman sends this along: The Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London wishes to appoint a Senior Strategic Teaching Fellow in Data Science, to be in post by September 2018 or as soon as possible thereafter. The role will involve developing and delivering a suite of new data science modules, initially for the MSc […] The post Data science teaching position in London appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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