I received the following email from psychology researcher Zoltan Kekecs: I would like to ask you to participate in the establishment of the expert consensus design of a large scale fully transparent replication of Bem’s (2011) ‘Feeling the future’ Experiment 1. Our initiative is called the ‘Transparent Psi Project’. [https://osf.io/jk2zf/wiki/home/] Our aim is to develop […] The post Why I’m not participating in the Transparent Psi Project appeared first on…
Jonathan Falk points us to this article by Kewei Hou, Chen Xue, and Lu Zhang, who write: In retrospect, the anomalies literature is a prime target for p-hacking. First, for decades, the literature is purely empirical in nature, with little theoretical guidance. Second, with trillions of dollars invested in anomalies-based strategies in the U.S.market alone, […] The post Financial anomalies are contingent on being unknown appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…
Someone pointed me to this post by Nick Brown discussing a recent article by John Carlisle regarding scientific misconduct. Here’s Brown: [Carlisle] claims that he has found statistical evidence that a surprisingly high proportion of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) contain data patterns that cannot have arisen by chance. . . . the implication is that […] The post “Bombshell” statistical evidence for research misconduct, and what to do about it?…
This came up in a research discussion the other day. Someone had produced some estimates, and there was a question: where are the conf intervals. I said that if you have replication and you graph the estimates that were produced, then you don’t really need conf intervals (or, for that matter, p-values). The idea is […] The post No conf intervals? No problem (if you got replication). appeared first on…
Four years ago, in a post entitled, “How can statisticians help psychologists do their research better?”, I gave the following recommendations to researchers: – Analyze all your data. – Present all your comparisons. – Make your data public. And, for journal editors, I wrote, “if a paper is nothing special, you don’t have to publish […] The post How has my advice to psychology researchers changed since 2013? appeared first…
After this discussion, I pointed Ryan Giordano, Tamara Broderick, and Michael Jordan to Figure 4 of this paper with Bois and Jiang as an example of “static sensitivity analysis.” I’ve never really followed up on this idea but I think it could be useful for many problems. Giordano replied: Here’s a copy of Basu’s robustness […] The post Static sensitivity analysis appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…
Doug Puett writes: I am a 2012 QMSS [Columbia University Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences] grad who is currently trying to build a Data Science/Quantitative UX team, and was hoping for some advice. I am finding myself having a hard time finding people who are really interested in understanding people and who especially are excited […] The post This company wants to hire people who can program in R or…
John Carlin and I write: It is well known that even experienced scientists routinely misinterpret p-values in all sorts of ways, including confusion of statistical and practical significance, treating non-rejection as acceptance of the null hypothesis, and interpreting the p-value as some sort of replication probability or as the posterior probability that the null hypothesis […] The post Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work.…
I think there’s something wrong this op-ed by developmental psychologist Alison Gopnik, “4-year-olds don’t act like Trump,” and which begins, The analogy is pervasive among his critics: Donald Trump is like a child. . . . But the analogy is profoundly wrong, and it’s unfair to children. The scientific developmental research of the past 30 […] The post #NotAll4YearOlds appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Barry Petchesky writes: Below you’ll find a room list found before Game 1 at the Four Seasons in Houston (right across from the arena), where the Thunder were staying for their first-round series against the Rockets. We didn’t run it then because we didn’t want Rockets fans pulling the fire alarm or making late-night calls […] The post Hotel room aliases of the statisticians appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…
