What’s the probability that a significant p-value indicates a true effect?

(This article was originally published at Nicebread, and syndicated at StatsBlogs.)

If the p-value is < .05, then the probability of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis is  <5%, right? That means, a maximum of 5% of all significant results is a false-positive (that’s what we control with the α rate). Well, no. As you will see in a minute, the “false discovery rate” (aka. false-positive rate), […]

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