Posts Tagged ‘ Stopping Time ’

A dynamic programming solution to A/B test design

July 6, 2015
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Our last article on A/B testing described the scope of the realistic circumstances of A/B testing in practice and gave links to different standard solutions. In this article we will be take an idealized specific situation allowing us to show a particul...

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Estimating rates from a single occurrence of a rare event

October 5, 2013
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Estimating rates from a single occurrence of a rare event

Elon Musk’s writing about a Tesla battery fire reminded me of some of the math related to trying to estimate the rate of a rare event from a single occurrence of the event (plus many non-event occurrences). In this article we work through some of the ideas. Elon Musk wrote that the issues of the […] Related posts: Sample size and power for rare events What is a large enough…

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