In demography, we like to use life tables to estimate the probability that someone born in 1945 (say) is still alive nowadays. But another interesting quantity might be the probability that someone alive in 1945 is still alive nowadays. The main difference is that we do not know when that person, alive in 1945, was born. Someone who was old in 1945 is very unlikely still alive in 2017. To compute…
A few days ago, I did mention on Twitter a nice graph, with Mortality by Weekday and Age https://t.co/LyzQ7nJABZ very interesting difference, young vs. old pic.twitter.com/EfrX0C1GBS — Arthur Charpentier (@freakonometrics) 27 février 2016 My colleague Jean-Philippe was extremely sceptical, so I tried to reproduce that graph. The good thing is that we have the Social Security Death Master File, for data in the US. To be more specific, I have…
Widespread attention towards the death of black men by police has sparked protests and public outrage in many a city. Recently, the Federal Government has launched an investigation into the conduct of the entire Chicago police department. However, by p...
Last week, while I was giving my crash course on R for insurance, we’ve been discussing possible extensions of Lee & Carter (1992) model. If we look at the seminal paper, the model is defined as follows Hence, it means that This would be a (non)linear model on the logarithm of the mortality rate. A non-equivalent, but alternative expression might be which could be obtained as a Gaussian model, with…
A few months ago, in Men set to live as long as women, figures show, it was mentioned that (in the U.K.) the gap between male and female life expectancy is closing and men could catch up by 2030, according to an adviser for the Office for National Statistics. (the slides are available online http://cass.city.ac.uk/…). I don’t really know U.K. demography, but I was surprised to read such an optimistic conclusion. So…
This week, I discovered a picture on http://waitbutwhy.com/, which represent a (so-called) typical human life, in weeks, I found that interesting. But the first problem is that I don't understand the limit, below: 90 years, that's not the average life length. That's not what you should expect to live when you get born. The second problem is that it cannot be as static as it might seem, when you look at the…
