The U.S. Council of Economic Advisors has a nice new review of "Gross Domestic Output" (GDO), a simple average of expenditure- and income-side GDP estimates now published by the BEA.In an earlier post I wrote rather negatively about GDO ...
The U.S. Council of Economic Advisors has a nice new review of "Gross Domestic Output" (GDO), a simple average of expenditure- and income-side GDP estimates now published by the BEA.In an earlier post I wrote rather negatively about GDO ...
Here's a conjecture that I'd love to see explored. It's well-posed, simple, and really interesting.Conjecture: GDPplus (obtained by Kalman smoothing) may be very well approximated by taking a simple convex combination of exponentially smoothed GDPe (ex...
Seasonality research is back! Well, at least a bit.I recall heady earlier days, with classic work like Granger's typical spectral shape, mutiplicative seasonal Box-Jenkins and the airline model, Nerlove's unobserved-components models and Harvey's basic...
Let's start with some notation. GDPe is expenditure-side GDP from BEA. GDPi is income-side GDP from BEA. GDPavg is the average of GDPe and GDPi recently introduced by BEA. GDPplus is the Kalman-smoother extraction of GDP from GDPe and GDPi, produced an...
BEA's "new product" (see below) -- a U.S. GDP estimate that's a simple average of expenditure- and income-side GDP estimates -- is not yet at the cutting-edge of historical GDP estimation.On the benefits of blending the expenditure- and incom...
